Beyond Richardson: Modeling Conflict in a World of Complexity and Climate Change
Publisher: International Studies Association Annual Convention
Author(s): Jürgen Scheffran
Date: 2018
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Prevention, Data and Technologies, Governance, Peace and Security Operations
Richardson's pioneering work on modelling conflict and arms races has demonstrated that mathematics can contribute to peace and conflict research. Limitations of Richardson's model have been discussed, including the focus on single quantitative armament variables; its linear mechanistic and deterministic form with continuous time; the use of fixed parameters without human decision-making; difficulties of validation; or the linkages between arms race and war. Based on previous approaches, an integrated modeling framework is presented expanding Richardson's approach to analyze conflict phenomena in a complex world. The time-discrete and nonlinear systems dynamics model is used to analyse dynamic interactions among multiple factors and multiple agents with value-oriented drivers and budget constraints. Conditions for instability and chaos in international security are derived, potentially leading to violent conflict, arms race and war, as well as transitions between conflict and cooperation. The model provides insights in the analysis of potential impacts of natural resources, energy, carbon emissions and climate change on conflict and cooperation. The model may contribute to a tool for combined forecasts of climate change and violent conflict, building bridges between Richardson's research in atmospheric sciences and weather forecasting with his work in peace and conflict studies.