Climate War in the Middle East? Drought, the Syrian Civil War and the State of Climate-Conflict Research
Publisher: Current Climate Change Reports
Author(s): Tobias Ide
Date: 2018
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Disasters, Livelihoods, Renewable Resources
Countries: Syrian Arab Republic
This article reviews existing evidence for a climate-conflict link in Syria and examines how the respective debate reproduces three important shortcomings of climate-conflict research. The potential climate-conflict link for Syria can be conceived of as a four-stage process, with various levels of scientific evidence and consensus existing for each stage: (i) climate change inducing the heavy 2006-9 drought (plausible, but not proven); (ii) massive loss of agricultural livelihoods, significantly attributable to the drought (supported by a majority of studies, but contested); (iii) massive rural-to-urban migration triggered by livelihood loss in combination with other factors (supported by a majority of studies, but contested); and (iv) migration intensifying existing grievances and facilitating the onset of protests and the subsequent civil war (possible, but little knowledge exists) The debate about the Syrian case reproduces three important shortcomings of climate-conflict research: limited dialogue between different methods, an overstatement of differences, and a lack of theoretical engagement. These shortcomings also have adverse impacts in terms of policy advice.