The Catastrophes-Conflicts Nexus: On the Interlinkages of Disasters, Armed Conflicts, and Fragility
Publisher: World Risk Report 2024: Multiple Crises
Author(s): Tobias Ide, Karima Ben Bih, and Katie Peters
Date: 2024
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Disasters
Disasters and armed conflict zones frequently overlap, with factors such as climate change and persistent poverty amplifying this trend. Recent research shows that disasters increase the risk of conflict onset and escalation under certain conditions, such as weak institutions or high disaster vulnerability. Disasters can also shift the balance of power between conflict parties. However, the disaster-conflict nexus is not just unidimensional. When weakening the conflict parties, disasters can also facilitate a de-escalation of violence and open opportunities for aid delivery and diplomacy. Managing disaster risks in fragile and conflict-affected settings involves analyzing disaster risks in fragile states, designing conflict-sensitive disaster response and recovery, layering and sequencing support, and maintaining national capacities.