Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change in Conflict-Affected Countries

Kim Smet, Industrial Economics Inc. (United States)

Over the past five years, the World Bank has undertaken Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) to better understand the interplay between climate change and development, and evaluate benefits and costs of mitigating climate risks. Our team has contributed to these World Bank CCDRs by conducting biophysical modeling to estimate climate impacts for over 50 CCDRs, including in conflict-affected countries such as Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan, and Mali. These impacts (e.g., changes to sectoral water availability, energy production, heat stress on labor, agricultural yields, infrastructure damages) serve as input to macroeconomic models to quantify the economic effects. We have evaluated different development scenarios that assume continuing fragility or stability and growth. We find that the positive outcomes of achieving peace and stability generally outweigh the negative effects of climate change. We will present quantitative findings from several countries, highlighting key lessons learned.