Climate, Conflict, and Changing Demographics Command Attention in New Global Health Security Report

May 16, 2024 | Lauren Herzer Risi
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A new report by the US Intelligence Community highlights what the world stands to lose if it fails to cooperate on global health. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “Dynamics Shaping Global Health Security In the Next Decade” outlines the dire effects of climate change, changing demographics, and the erosion of trust in institutions on global health security. The NIE on Global Health Security was made publicly available in April 2024, on the heels of the Biden-Harris Administration’s launch of a new Global Health Security Strategy.

Looking out to 2033, the NIE assesses global health security dynamics in the wake of the COVID-19 emergency. “As the international community moves on from the COVID-19 pandemic,” notes the report, “strained national and international health systems, pandemic fatigue, contested narratives and misinformation, and competing global priorities, including shifting donor attention and funding, are increasing the risk of backsliding on gains made in health security since 2021.”

The NIE illustrates progress the intelligence community has made in recognizing security risks outside of a traditional military framing and applying a transdisciplinary lens to their analysis. Unfortunately, the report fails to apply that same transdisciplinary lens to solutions, instead focusing narrowly on emerging technological advances and the expansion of COVID-19 era responses.