The Climate–Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach

May 11, 2022 | Julia Freedberg
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In contrast to previous debates on climate change, contemporary discussions emphasise the impacts that climate change has on human security.  While there is consensus about climate change being a risk multiplier and therefore having the potential to exacerbate existing problems, it is still unclear to what extent that is the case. Furthermore, if, how, or when climate change can contribute to or even spark conflict remains highly contextual.

Compared to other regions in the world, Africa has contributed very little to anthropogenic climate change, as its relatively low economic development and energy consumption have led to only about one-tenth per capita of greenhouse gas emissions compared to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries.

The Global South, and the African continent in particular, is one of the most vulnerable areas. In the past 40 years, the SADC region has experienced more than one-third of all weatherrelated disasters on the continent, with an impact on 177 million people in total and causing $14 billion worth of damage. North African countries such as Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt are at risk of violent conflict since they have experienced violence in the past, especially since 2011. Yet some studies suggest that conflict may have occurred through the food–water–energy nexus, creating tensions because of price hikes and food shortages (ie, food insecurity).

Yet, alarmist prognoses, as well as a tendency to frame climate change exclusively as a security threat, should be avoided.