Climate Threats Are Multiplying in the Horn of Africa

Dec 8, 2021 | Robert Muggah
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The four countries on the peninsula—Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia—are warming more quickly than the global average, with dangerous implications for unrest and conflict within and across their borders.  More than climate anomalies, these gathering menaces have become what some experts call “threat multipliers”. With around 80 percent of the region’s population depending on subsistence farming and herding to survive, minor setbacks can push villages headlong into hunger and malnutrition. With sky-high population growth averaging 3 percent per year and an outsized youth bulge, the region is struggling to meet the growing demand for basic resources, especially food and energy. 

With mitigation efforts unlikely to ease short-term distress, the situation in the Horn underlines the urgent need to address growing security concerns through climate adaptation. 

The complex relationships between climate and security have climbed the agendas of diplomats, including in the U.N. Security Council. Ireland and Niger, with support from a raft of European, African, and small island states, may lead the passage of the first ever Security Council resolution on climate and security this week.