A Darker Shade of “Code Red”: Arms and Climate Change

Dec 2, 2021 | Sarah Grand-Clément
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Does the conventional arms community have the necessary tools to address climate change, including the risk of future climate shocks and environmental degradation, in its prevention and mitigation mechanisms? There has been limited research on the relationship between climate change and conventional arms. To date, it has either focused on the impact of climate change on conflict – without integrating the arms and ammunition dimension – or on the environmental impacts of conventional arms, which does not include the effects of climate change.

Research by the International Committee of the Red Cross has shown that 12 of the 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change are also impacted by armed conflict. While we have some data on authorised arms flows to these countries, we are missing information on illicit flows and unregulated production. With climate change impacts set to increase, how might this affect the demand, supply and use of conventional arms in the future?