Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on the Risk of Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2012
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Author(s): John O’Loughlina, Andrew M. Linkea, and Frank D. W. Witmerb
Date: 2014
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes
Ongoing debates in the academic community and in the public policy arena continue without clear resolution about the significance of global climate change for the risk of increased conflict. Sub-Saharan Africa is generally agreed to be the region most vulnerable to such climate impacts. Using a large database of conflict events and detailed climatological data covering the period 1980–2012, we apply a multilevel modeling technique that allows for a more nuanced understanding of a climate–conflict link than has been seen heretofore. In the aggregate, high temperature extremes are associated with more conflict; however, different types of conflict and different subregions do not show consistent relationship with tem- perature deviations. Precipitation deviations, both high and low, are generally not significant. The location and timing of violence are influenced less by climate anomalies (temperature or precipita- tion variations from normal) than by key political, economic, and geographic factors. We find important distinctions in the relation- ship between temperature extremes and conflict by using multiple methods of analysis and by exploiting our time-series cross- sectional dataset for disaggregated analyses.