Climate Security, Migration and Fragility
Publisher: European Commission
Author(s): Teresa Talò
Date: 2026
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Governance
This brief examines how climate change interacts with conflict, fragility and human mobility. Evidence shows that climate change rarely acts as a direct cause of violence or displacement, but rather as a risk multiplier that intensifies existing political, economic and social vulnerabilities. Two main pathways are identified: climate stress can contribute to conflict that drives displacement, and it can increase migration pressures that may heighten local tensions. At the same time, mobility, remittances and shock-responsive social protection can strengthen resilience and weaken these negative dynamics when supported by effective institutions. Policy responses should therefore combine conflict-sensitive adaptation, expanded social protection, safe migration pathways and inclusive urbanisation to reduce forced displacement risks.