Climate-Related Security Risks in the 2020 Updated Nationally Determined Contributions
Publisher: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Author(s): Elise Remling and Amar Causevic
Date: 2021
Topics: Assessment, Climate Change, Conflict Prevention, Cooperation
Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are the central instrument for states to communicate their contribution to the 2016 Paris Agreement on climate change and reflect their wider approach to climate mitigation and adaptation. This SIPRI Insights paper analyses how the 2020 updated NDCs (16 submissions as of October 2020) discuss climate-related security risks and compares them with 2015. It finds that climate change is mainly seen as a risk to socio-economic development and human security and almost never as a risk to societal stability or the functioning of the state. The assessment of risks in NDCs largely focuses on direct climate impacts. This suggests that countries are currently not considering the risks from indirect climate impacts, including those that cross national borders, or the unintended adverse consequences of adaptation or mitigation responses. Going forward, countries will need to take account of the multifaceted and transboundary character of climate risks in their NDCs in order to meet global expectations and goals.