Request for Proposals: The Implications of Climate and Environmental Change on Migration and Displacement (Climate Security Alert Tool)

Aug 8, 2022 | United States Institute of Peace

USIP is a national, nonpartisan, independent institute, founded by Congress and dedicated to the proposition that a world without violent conflict is possible, practical, and essential for U.S. and global security. In conflict zones abroad, the Institute works with local partners to prevent, mitigate, and resolve violent conflict. For more information, please visit http://www.usip.org. The Climate, Environment, and Conflict (CEC) program at USIP aims to advance applied research and policy development on migration and displacement related to climate and environmental change. USIP is currently supporting research on climate, migration, and security through three projects: 1) Examining the pathways of climate-related migration to urban areas; 2) Proposing a new socio-economic agenda to connect climate, environment, conflict resolution, and peacebuilding in urban areas; and 3) Developing recommendations for how U.S. government agencies and the military should approach the risks posed by slow-onset climate impacts. The U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM) has hosted two symposia on the security implications of climate change (SICC). The first event (SICC1), held in Stuttgart, Germany, at the USAFRICOM base in late January 2022, focused on helping USAFRICOM staff get up to speed and identified the most critical climate-related challenges. The second event (SICC2), co-hosted with the U.S. Institute of Peace and held in Washington, D.C., in May 2022, served to validate the climate challenges; continue to expand a community of stakeholders and experts, including among the interagency; and inform the 2022 Theater Strategy, follow-on tabletop exercises, and future Campaign Plans and Orders. The U.S. Institute of Peace is currently partnering closely with USAFRICOM around applied research focused on helping define AFRICOM’s strategic terrain. USIP’s approach to a Strategic Terrain Analysis for AFRICOM related to climate security will involve three approaches: 1) identification of AFRICOM’s key climate security interests in the Africa region and 2) development of a Climate Security Alert Tool that includes climate and environmental inputs as well as other security-related indicators (covered in a separate RFP); and 3) deep dives into key sector and/or countries of focus (covered by this RFP). These deep-dives will serve as inputs to further refine the Tool, but also to further understanding of different climate security sectors and to develop a methodology of case studies that provide useful feedback to AFRICOM’s understanding of its Strategic Terrain. These deep-dives should help AFRICOM better understand how climate security risks play out in ways that may shift the sectors of their Strategic Terrain, alter priority geographies, or identify climate risks where AFRICOM may request other U.S. Agencies or international partners to play an expanded role.  II. Purpose of the RFP The CEC Program seeks to support the development of a climate security framework and a Climate Security Alert Tool to support USAFRICOM’s understanding of how its strategic terrain is shifting with climate change. The climate security framework and Tool will also inform USAFRICOM’s Campaign Plan, which is focused on countering malign actors and transnational threats, responding to crises, strengthening security forces in order to advance U.S. nationalinterests and promoting regional security, stability, and prosperity. While both of these products are focused on support for USAFRICOM’s strategic planning, it is expected that they will also be informative to USAFRICOM’s partners and other organizations focused on these issues. Those interested in submitting a proposal should have demonstrated experience in applied research and strong scholarship related climate security and development studies. Proposals should clearly describe the approach to developing a climate security framework that will help guide USAFRICOM’s thinking and planning and how a tool will be shaped around that framework. Proposals should also demonstrate knowledge of the research subject and relevant literature.  USIP expects to award one contract for this project. We invite researchers at universities, research institutions, and practitioner organizations to submit a proposal. The selected offeror(s) will be awarded a fix-priced contract for up to twelve months for research and development of the climate security framework, as well as the development of a tool. The selected offeror(s) will receive the final payment of their contract when the climate security framework and tool are approved by USIP.   III. Scope of Work This RFP covers two major deliverables: A background paper that outlines a framework for identifying and understanding key climate security interests in the Africa region, and the development of a Climate Security Alert Tool that operationalizes the framework outlined in the background paper and can be readily updated. Both of these products will be developed in consultation with senior advisors at USIP from security, regional, and climate specialties, as well as with representatives from USAFRICOM.  Deliverable 1: Background paper/framework on climate security in Africa Background: In order to develop a Climate Security Alert Tool, it will first be necessary to define climate security in the African context and with the security sector in mind. Climate security has no well-established definition, and many issues are either included or excluded depending on the situation. While other groups are beginning to try to establish a better understanding of what “climate security” means more generally, it will also be helpful to further define a climate security framework within the Africa context to guide inputs into a Climate Security Alert Tool. Examples of the issues that may be consolidated in a framework include:

  • The risk of political unrest and spillover impacts into wider instability
  • Recruitment into extremist groups
  • Migration and/or displacement
  • The dynamics of both urban and rural areas
  • Localized and/or regional tensions over climate-related resources (water, green minerals)
  • Tensions over climate-related initiatives (forest protection, deployment of green energy)
 Scope: Develop a background paper of no more than 20 pages that outlines and justifies key elements of a framework for climate-related security risks in the African context. This paper should be based on a literature survey, set of consultations, and potentially further developed and/or tested through an experts’ roundtable in collaboration with USIP.    Deliverable 2: Climate Security Alert Tool Background: The paper and framework developed as Deliverable 1 should guide the development of Deliverable 2: Climate Security Alert Tool. This tool should consolidate publicly available indicators and other sources of research to provide insight into hotspots of climate- related security risks in Africa with implications for U.S. security interests – i.e., what geographies and timescales should be prioritized by the security sector and provide output in a form that can be easily ingested into other decision-support tools. Based in concept off early warning tools, the following sources of information could be considered: 
  • Level of climate impacts: Potentially focused primarily on slow-onset impacts, including impacts on climate cycles such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and long-term shifts in patterns of climate variability.
  • Indicators related to conflict and fragility: Integrating learnings from the fragility and conflict community and using indicators around social capital, access to public services, available natural resources per person, etc.
  • Timelines: Potentially developed around two different timeframes (current and ~20 years)
  • Mix of national and sub-national indicators: Many conflict-related indicators will need to be collected at sub-national scales in order to be useful. It is possible that some regional issues will also need to be integrated.
  • Mix of quantitative and qualitative input: Many relevant issues may not be reflected in terms of available indicators, and so understanding how to integrate relevant qualitative information will be useful.
 Scope: The draft Tool should be developed using a well-defined and documented methodology that can be easily updated and/or revised by other partners. It should be tested with USAFRICOM and partners with interests in climate security in Africa to ensure that it meets the needs of a wide audience in providing a broad-brush look at how climate-related security risks evolve and in identifying key hotspots of interest from a U.S. perspective. Offerors should state whether they have a publicly-available platform to host the tool and have an interest in continuing to maintain, update, and support the tool. Travel to at least one meeting in Africa to test the tool with partners should be included. This may be a meeting on climate security hosted by USAFRICOM or another meeting identified through consultation with USIP and USAFRICOM.  Submission Requirements To be considered under this RFP, please submit the following: Technical/Narrative Proposal (no more than eight pages) 

The narrative proposal should be five to eight pages, excluding the bibliography, and adhere to standard formatting practices. It should include the following sections:

  • Description of proposed sectoral and/or regional deep-dive: Please describe the sectoral and/or regional deep-dive topic and the significance of your proposed contribution.
  • Overall Approach and Methodology: As relevant, please describe the proposed approach to research, data collection, data analysis, and development of policy-relevant conclusions, and an implementation timeline. As noted above, the final research methodology and publication outline will be approved in consultation with USIP.
  • Key Personnel, Specific Expertise, and Past Experience: Describe the key personnel, their role, their level of knowledge, and how their experience is related and beneficial. Describe the overall staffing plan for the project. Please note that staff may be non-US citizens. Describe at least two projects of similar scope and complexity the offeror has worked on previously. Provide a point of contact with telephone number and email address for at least one of the described projects. Also, please include whether the offeror and/or essential personnel have received funding from USIP in the past and if so, include a short description of the project, the name of the USIP main point of contact, and the grant or contract number, as applicable.
  Curriculum Vitae For each of the key personnel, please provide a CV of no more than three pages. CVs will not count as part of the insert number pages of the technical proposal. Cost Proposal The cost proposal shall include a detailed budget and a budget narrative. Budget must be in U.S. dollars and in a spreadsheet format (e.g., Excel). USIP allows organizations to include up to 12% indirect cost recovery on total direct costs for contracts. Financial Management Assessment Form Organizations must complete the Financial Management Assessment Form unless they have received Federal grants, contracts or cooperative agreements in the past two years and can provide their audited financial statement from their most recent fiscal year. Certification Page Complete and sign the Certification Page and submit with the proposal.  Refer questions to Tegan Blaine, tblaine@usip.orgSubmit proposals to Tegan Blaine, tblaine@gmail.com 

For More Information and the full RFP, see RFPReport.pdf