The Implications for Israel of a Possible War over the Nile

May 1, 2022 | Martin Sherman
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The Blue Nile is one of the river’s two principal tributaries that converge near the Sudanese capital Khartoum and then flow northwards through Egypt to the Mediterranean Sea. As the world’s longest river system, the Nile functions as a lifeline to the 11 countries it traverses, supplying them with both water and hydroelectricity. Egypt, which is the furthest downstream, is also one the most vulnerable to disruptions in the river flow. Egypt, which is the furthest downstream, is also one the most vulnerable to disruptions in the river flow.

Should war break out, the outcome is far from a foregone conclusion. 

The conflict’s potential strategic fallout for Israel is seldom, if ever, raised in the public debate, despite the fact that it may turn out to be severe.Egypt has long been plagued by an Islamist insurgency in Sinai that involves disaffected Bedouin tribes and the jihadi group Ansar Bait al-Maqdis, which later became the ISIS-affiliated “Sinai Province” (Wilayat Sinai).Thus, if the impasse with Ethiopia persists, and the grave water situation in Egypt continues to deteriorate, Cairo may well be forced to prioritize the well-being of the millions in the Nile delta over its endeavor to maintain control over the remote Sinai. This means ceding ground to the anti-regime—and anti-Israel—radicals, who, in the past, have launched attacks against Israel and smuggled arms into Hamas-controlled Gaza.