Responses to Putin’s War Risk Impeding International Cooperation on Climate

Mar 28, 2022 | Andrew Newton
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Less than a month after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the conflict which has so far caused thousands of military and civilian deaths and forced millions to flee has already been dubbed a 'climate change war'. The long-term impact is likely to be to encourage many – if not all – big economies to seek to massively reduce their dependence on hydrocarbons.  Upcoming summits will provide some answers. The idea of Putin as international pariah is very much a US and European one, and may not be shared by G20 hosts Indonesia, who have signaled a reluctance to exclude Russia from this year’s summit.The meeting in Bali this November could become a very interesting piece of political theatre if Putin is invited and others are forced to decide whether to also take part.

All indications are that Germany, the G7 president for 2022, will push ahead with the concept of an “international climate club” as the central climate initiative for the group this year.  Ultimately, the likelihood of substantial multilateral progress on climate will rely heavily on China. In providing a certain amount of diplomatic support and cover for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has raised concerns that it could go further and offer a range of economic and military support, thereby risking a general deterioration in the capacity for globally coordinated multilateral action that could severely disrupt global climate negotiations.