Can We Predict Climate Change Impacts on Future Peace and Security?

Jan 5, 2022 | Halvard Buhaug and Nina von Uexkull
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Analytical challenges notwithstanding, it is therefore not only a natural, but also a necessary step for conflict research to catch up with the rapid developments in climate sciences and move beyond historical analysis to provide a better understanding of likely security implications of climate change. 

Improving on projections and modeling techniques, including leveraging artificial intelligence and capturing feedback loops, are important steps in this direction. Instead, to assist decision-makers, scientists have developed a scenario framework that allows analyzing how different socioeconomic development pathways (SSPs) and global warming trajectories (RCPs) jointly may affect nature and society over the 21st century.

The reasons for the scarcity of scenario-based conflict studies are partly a reflection of the field’s emphasis on more immediate security challenges but also a result of non-trivial methodological challenges, including complex causality and a modest historical association between climatic conditions and armed conflict.