Climate Change, Security, and Political Coherence in the South and East China Seas: A Scenarios-Based Assessment
Publisher: Center for Climate and Security
Author(s): Rachel Fleishman
Date: 2022
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Economic Recovery, Governance
Countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam
Climate change is a present and growing threat to countries bordering the South and East China Seas. It tests governments already weakened by the strains of the global pandemic in fundamental areas such as governance, food provision, and social and economic development. How these governments respond to the intersectional and security implications of climate change could well determine the course of regional development for decades to come.
Anticipating and preventing destabilizing outcomes will require unprecedented collaboration among policymakers and actors at the confluence of defense, development and diplomacy. The politically aware and digitally connected populations of East and Southeast Asia may not tolerate failures of governance as in the past – especially as climate change complicates governments’ tasks of delivering food security and physical security. Investments to upgrade and increase the resilience of critical food, energy, waste, transport and other essential infrastructure are urgently needed. The “soft infrastructure” of inclusive political discourse and responsive policy-making requires upgrades as well, especially in states with a disconnect between a powerful elite and the broader population. In the realm of diplomacy and defense, holistic planning based on data-driven analytical tools and a clear-eyed assessment of the strength and flexibility of regional political organizations will help identify new avenues for multi-sector collaboration that can be systematized to meet the growing security risks of living in a climate-changed world.