The Impact of Climate Change on the Dynamics of Conflicts in the Transboundary River Basins of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan
Publisher: International Alert
Author(s): Vadim Ni, Elena Efimova, Alyona Rickelton, Mirlan Dyykanbayev, Sherzod Shamiev, Olimchon Bakhtaliyev, Aliaskar Adylov, and Doriyush Soliyev
Date: 2022
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Renewable Resources
Countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
Climate change and the deterioration of environmental conditions are having increasing impact on countries’ socio-economic development, as well as the lives of their communities. Regional tensions are increasing as a result of water scarcity and degrading land, as well as more intense competition for natural resources. However, these issues remain under- researched in the region. Mass and social media attention on these changing dynamics suggest that there is high demand for knowledge among the public – what is happening now? How will the lives of communities change as a result? What is are the implications of climate and environmental risks for security in the region? The escalation of local crises over falling water levels in rivers and canals and drought in pasture lands in summer 2021 indicated that, approaching climate change and climate issues in Central, water distribution in river basins would be an ideal entry point. Therefore, International Alert led an analytical process in Kazakhastan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan from September-November 2021 to inform regional dialogue on the social dimensions of climate change and environmental degradation and their tension- and conflict-generating potential. Geographic coverage of the process included three border areas: Almaty and Zhambyl regions of Kazakhstan; Batken, Talas, and Chui regions of Kyrgyzstan; Sughd region of Tajikistan. The results of the study and recommendations were agreed upon by experts from all three countries, a significant achievement.