Assessing the Relationship between Climate, Food Security and Conflict in Ethiopia and in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC): Quantitative Analysis on the Impact of Climate Variability on Conflict in Ethiopia and in the CADC Countries
Publisher: CGIAR
Author(s): Grazia Pacillo, Bia Carneiro, Giuliano Resce, Giosue Ruscica, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Harold Achicanoy, Victor Villa, Alexandra Krendelsberger, and Peter Läderach
Date: 2021
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Programming, Renewable Resources
Countries: El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua
We live in a world of increasingly unpredictable, more frequent, and more extreme climate impacts, where the most vulnerable are also the most exposed to climate shocks and stressors and are less able to improve their resilience capacity against those. In conflict settings, the impact of climate on food security, poverty, inequality and other existing threats and vulnerabilities may push the poorest and the most vulnerable into a spiral of further risks, insecurities, and social exclusion. Similarly, in fragile contexts, additional deprivations generated by the inability of the poorest households to cope with the climate impacts, can significantly increase competition over essential resources and exacerbate grievances, tensions, and conflicts. Thus, acknowledging the role of climate on peace and security has become a priority for many national and international policy makers.
The objective of this report is to present the results of the WFP – CGIAR project “Action on Climate Change and food security to improve the prospect for peace” started in October 2020. The project is part of thematic deep dive on climate change of the broader, multi-year SIPRI-WFP knowledge partnership on understanding WFP’s contributions to improving the prospects for peace. In this study, we investigate the climate-food security-conflict nexus in Ethiopia and the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC). Both Ethiopia and the CADC are hotspots of high climate variabilities, high political insecurity, and conflicts and widespread food and nutrition insecurities across their populations.