Temperatures and Tensions Rise: Security and Climate Risk in the Arctic [Infographic]
Publisher: Council on Strategic Risks
Author(s): Kate Guy, Alexandra Naegele, Natalie Baillargeon, Madeleine Holland, Christopher Schwalm, and Carl Churchill
Date: 2021
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Prevention, Extractive Resources
Countries: Canada, China, Russian Federation, United States
Arctic climate change poses a growing threat to international security. In the coming decades, the Arctic region will experience intense change along two main trendlines: (1) Rapid environmental shifts that accompany our current climate trajectory, including loss of sea ice, new temperature extremes, permafrost thaw, and biodiversity changes; (2) An influx of new human activity, including resource extraction, development and use of new shipping lanes, commercial and military traffic, and increased interactions among nuclear-armed, global powers. These trends will be mapped on a region already witnessing increasing security tensions for Arctic nations. Actions taken by Russia, NATO, and China have increased the likelihood for accidents, misunderstandings, and disasters in a region that is already fragile and defined by growing great power tensions. Security actors in the Arctic will need to navigate these icy seas with a full picture of the rapid changes underway in order to preserve cooperation, rather than drive conflict, in response to new challenges.