Weathering Risk Methodology Paper
Publisher: adelphi
Author(s): Lukas Rüttinger, Janani Vivekananda, Christian König, and Barbora Sedova
Date: 2021
Topics: Assessment, Climate Change, Conflict Causes
Weathering Risk aims to ensure that all relevant policies and decision-making have access to and are better informed by evidence-based analysis on climate change related security risks, now and in the future. The organization will identify short-, medium-, and long-term threats to peace and wellbeing, and geopolitical and diplomatic relationships. To fulfil this objective, a multi-tiered climate and security risk and foresight assessment will be carried out by adelphi and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The first step of Weathering Risk is the development of an assessment approach. Its development is guided by two overarching questions: Through which pathways and under which circumstances will climate change affect peace and security in the short-, medium- and long-term, and how? What concrete actions can be taken to prevent and reduce these climate-related security risks, and what capacities and resources are available or needed to implement these actions in different contexts? Ensuring that Weathering Risk looks forwards, not just back, Weathering Risk combines state-of-the art quantitative and qualitative assessments and scenario-based foresight methods in an innovative way. The aim is to identify risks and prioritise entry points for action to promote sustainable peace and prevent the emergence and escalation of conflict linked to climate change impacts. Specifically, this assessment methodology will: (a) Integrate quantitative and qualitative methods to climate-security analysis; (b) Include innovative climate impact data, conflict analysis and scenario methods; (c) Be flexible in application in terms of geography and depth of analysis, and (d) Be forward looking. Our approach consists of five steps: 1. Climate impact analysis 2. Contextual analysis of climate-related security risks 3. Foresight and scenario planning: consultations and expert judgement elicitation 4. Machine Learning based assumption testing and validation process 5. Identification of responses.